Turkish rate hikes have ended, central bank survey predicts
The Turkish central bank’s weighted average cost of funding will be 24 percent at the end of the month, according to a latest survey by the institution, showing that economists and businessmen believe policymakers will keep interest rates unchanged at a meeting on Oct. 25.
The survey showed expectations for average funding costs of 24.12 percent in three months and 21.3 percent in October 2019. The predictions indicated that most economists and businessmen now expect no further monetary tightening.
The central bank raised the benchmark one-week repo lending rate to 24 percent in September from a previous 17.75 percent to help arrest a slump in the lira and curb inflation, which has surged to 24.5 percent. It rendered the benchmark as the only rate it would charge the nation’s banks to borrow.
But the Turkish lira has surged against the dollar over the past week, meaning less pressure on inflation, which is at the highest level since 2003. A government plan to deal with price rises, announced last week, made no mention of monetary policy. Turkey’s lira has strengthened from a record low of 7.22 per dollar in August. It traded at 5.55 on Thursday.
The central bank’s monthly survey of expectations predicted consumer price inflation easing slightly to 24.22 percent by the end of the year and to 17.03 percent in 12 months. The lira is expected to trade at 5.7472 per dollar at the end of October and at 5.9894 by the year-end.
Economic growth was seen at 3.2 percent for this year and 1.9 percent in 2019. The current account deficit was expected at $40.7 billion in 2018 and $31.6 billion next year.
The survey, conducted monthly, was made with a panel of 95 participants consisting of 75 experts from the financial sector, 12 from the real sector and eight professionals.